An expanding AI market may still leave its infrastructure owners short of their expected return. That is the mechanism behind Gartner’s 14 October 2026 forecast that more than US$3.5 trillion of infrastructure spending could be exposed to asset write-downs by the end of 2030 if the current investment pace continues.[1]
Data-centre owners would need cumulative revenue of US$8.5 trillion through 2030, Gartner calculates, to cover announced capital spending, financing costs and an assumed 12% return on invested capital. That percentage is the return it assumes investors require.[1]
Over the same period, Gartner forecasts no more than US$3.6 trillion in enterprise and consumer AI revenue attributable to data centres. It expects providers owning substantial infrastructure to earn less than half of AI revenue, because many AI businesses operate without owning major physical assets.[1]
The forecast assumes nearly US$1 trillion of infrastructure spending in 2026 and another US$6 trillion during 2027–2030. Exposure depends on that investment pace and the revenue reaching asset owners.[1]
Sources & further reading
- Gartner Says Over $3.5 Trillion of AI Infrastructure Spending Could Be Exposed to Impairment by the End of 2030 Gartner · 14 Oct 2026 · Accessed 20 Oct 2026